Hurricane Season Starts, With a Below-Average Forecast

Hurricane season is underway in the Atlantic as of Monday, and for the first time in more than 10 years, forecasters say it may be on the quiet side, NBC News reports. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects eight to 14 named storms and only three to six hurricanes, compared with a typical seven. The main reason: a strengthening El Niño, which tends to crank up wind shear over the Atlantic and disrupt storm formation, even as it does the opposite in the Pacific. A survey of 23 forecasting centers puts the average projection at five Atlantic hurricanes, below normal.

That doesn't mean coastal residents can relax. "It just takes one," warns National Weather Service director Ken Graham, noting that 1992's Hurricane Andrew, one of the costliest ever, hit in an otherwise sluggish season. NOAA is calling for an above-average Pacific season with nine to 14 hurricanes, systems that rarely strike the continental US but can still drive extreme weather, as Hilary did in California last year and Dora did around Hawaii. El Niño's broader influence could also push temperatures higher and worsen drought in the Pacific Northwest while reshaping rainfall patterns across the Southwest. The eastern Pacific hurricane season started May 15, Accuweather reports. Meanwhile, the US federal government has its smallest disaster workforce since 2021, and one emergency manager tells Politico the community is "holding our breath" hoping the season doesn't see anything catastrophic.