Independent Voters Are Jumping Off the Trump Train

Independents have grown increasingly unhappy with President Trump during his second term, a AP-NORC polling analysis finds, particularly those without a college degree. The analysis of 4,800-plus independents—which involved 21 surveys, blocked into five time periods before and during President Trump's second term—showed that while about half of independents without a college education had a positive view of Trump around the 2024 election, his approval with them fell to about 25% this spring. That shift has erased the large education gap that existed among independents in the months before Trump took office again, with independents now holding similarly negative views of the president regardless of their level of education.

The analysis allowed for a deep dive into how support for Trump has changed during several periods, including the last half of 2024, the first 100 days of Trump's presidency, the summer of 2025 when the "Big Beautiful Bill" passed, last fall's government shutdown, and the start of the Iran war. Independents sans college degrees had a more positive view of Trump than college-educated independents did during and just after the 2024 election, but that shifted in the first few months of his term. Positive views of Trump among independents without a college degree fell from 48% in the months before his return to office to 31% during his first 100 days back in office.

Those views declined even further, to about 25%, during the shutdown and early months of 2026. Only about 3 in 10 college-educated independents had a positive view of Trump before his return, making their drop to about one-quarter less dramatic. Trump's standing has also dropped among several small but important groups that moved toward him in the 2024 presidential election, including Black and Hispanic independents.

More Americans than ever consider themselves independents, and they're among the groups that shifted toward Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Any erosion in that support could signal trouble for Trump and Republicans headed into the midterm elections, often seen as a reflection of how voters feel about their governing party. Polling suggests the economy is at the root of many Americans' frustrations with Trump, including independents. About half of independents who supported Trump in 2024 said inflation was the single most important factor for their vote, AP VoteCast found, and most expressed high levels of concern about the cost of food and gas. More here.