US Could Be In for a Murder Milestone

America is edging toward the right kind of murder milestone: historically low levels of deadly violence. Crime analyst Jeff Asher says 2025 likely marked the lowest US murder rate since federal tracking began in 1960, and early data suggests 2026 could dip even further. His sample of about 600 police departments shows killings down nearly 19% in the first four months of this year; violent crime overall is down 6.4%, per NPR. Looking at broader CDC homicide data going back to 1930, Asher thinks this year could set an all-time low there, too—if a further summer drop holds.

The reversal is stark. The national murder rate surged to 6.8 deaths per 100,000 people in 2021, up more than 50% from 2014's low, prompting fears of a lasting "new normal." Now, places like King County, Wash., report shootings and deaths have almost halved since early 2022. Experts are split on why: some point to post-pandemic stabilization, others to surveillance technology, per Time. Still others credit resumed data-driven policing but warn that violence persists. And even a record low murder rate of around 4 deaths per 100,000—about twice Canada's rate—would still mean roughly 13,000 to 14,000 people killed.