US Plans to Sharply Reduce NATO Commitment in Europe

Washington is preparing to dial back a cornerstone of Europe's defenses. The New York Times, citing senior European officials speaking on condition of anonymity, reports that the US will cut roughly a third of the fighter jets it makes available to NATO in Europe, trimming F-16s and F-15Es from about 150 to 100, slashing maritime patrol planes from 26 to 15, and pulling all eight aerial refueling tankers. A missile-carrying submarine, an aircraft carrier with its accompanying jets and warships, and one of two bomber groups assigned to Europe are also being reallocated, reportedly as part of a broader push to shift resources toward the Indo-Pacific.

Under the Force Model system, NATO members periodically outline the equipment and forces they will commit to the alliance, Politico reports. The changes, detailed in a June document shared with allies and partly reviewed by the Times, have not been publicly spelled out by the Pentagon, which has only spoken of reducing its European commitments in general terms. Earlier this month, Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, head of the Pentagon's European Command, spoke of an "unhealthy codependence" on US forces, saying President Trump has been clear that it needs to change. Analysts say the combined cuts will constrain NATO's ability to conduct long-range strikes and track Russian submarines, even as European countries expand their own militaries.

For some in Europe, though, the bigger concern is political: whether the US, under Trump, would use any of the forces it keeps in Europe if a crisis hits, the Times reports. "NATO's main problem is that, as long as Trump is president, there is no longer any faith that the US would come to the Europeans' aid in the event of an emergency," says German lawmaker Anton Hofreiter. Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump will attend a NATO meeting in Turkey in July, Le Monde reports. Rubio said it will be "probably the most important meeting in NATO's history, because there's some things that need to be cleared up and fixed."